Nepal Exchange Rate Trend 2026: NPR vs USD Analysis
The Nepali rupee (NPR) has been on a depreciating trend against the US dollar in FY 2025/26. NRB data shows the exchange rate moved from 140.09 NRs/USD in mid-August 2025 to 147.94 NRs/USD by mid-March 2026 — a depreciation of approximately 5.6% in 8 months.
Monthly Exchange Rate (NRs per USD, FY 2025/26)
| Month | Mid-Month Rate | Monthly Average |
|---|---|---|
| August 2025 | 140.09 | 139.28 |
| September | 141.14 | 140.64 |
| October | 140.52 | 141.67 |
| November | 142.00 | 141.39 |
| December | 144.67 | 143.36 |
| January 2026 | 144.31 | 144.01 |
| February | 145.13 | 145.89 |
| March | 147.94 | 146.00 |
Year-on-Year Comparison
- FY 2024/25 annual average: 136.29 NRs/USD
- FY 2025/26 8-month average: ~141.6 NRs/USD
- Depreciation: ~3.9% year-on-year on average basis
- FY 2023/24 annual average: 133.08 NRs/USD
Why Is NPR Weakening?
NPR is pegged to the Indian Rupee (INR) at 1.6 NPR = 1 INR. Since INR has been weakening against USD due to global dollar strength, NPR follows. Key drivers:
- US Federal Reserve policy: Higher US interest rates strengthen the dollar globally
- India's trade deficit: Pressure on INR from India's own trade gap
- Global risk aversion: Capital flows to USD as a safe haven
Impact on Nepal's Economy
- Positive: Remittances worth more in NPR — partially explains the 37.67% surge in rupee-denominated remittances vs 31% in USD
- Positive: Exports become cheaper for foreign buyers
- Negative: Imports become more expensive — petroleum, machinery, consumer goods all cost more
- Negative: Foreign debt servicing costs increase in NPR terms
Historical Trend (Annual Averages)
- 2018/19: 112.88
- 2019/20: 120.84
- 2020/21: 117.87
- 2021/22: 121.00
- 2022/23: 130.75
- 2023/24: 133.08
- 2024/25: 136.29
- 2025/26 (8M): ~141.6
The long-term trend shows consistent NPR depreciation against USD — from ~113 in 2018/19 to ~142 in 2025/26, a cumulative 25.4% decline over 7 years.
Conclusion
The NPR continues to weaken against USD, driven primarily by INR movements. While this boosts remittance values, it also makes imports more expensive and contributes to imported inflation. The March 2026 rate of 147.94 NRs/USD is the highest in Nepal's history.