What to Expect on April 2, 2026
After NEPSE's sharp 74.73-point (-2.62%) decline to 2,776.36 on April 1, 2026, investors are asking the same question heading into the next session: Will the market stabilise, or is more downside ahead? Here is a structured outlook for April 2.
Key Support Levels to Watch
Technically, NEPSE has carved out several important levels after Tuesday's decline:
- 2,750: Psychological support and near the 200-day moving average zone — first major floor if selling continues
- 2,725–2,730: Secondary support cluster from the January-February 2026 consolidation base
- 2,700: Strong round-number psychological support — breach of this level would signal a deeper correction phase
On the upside, the first resistance to watch is the 2,800 level — now converted from support to resistance after Tuesday's close below it.
Scenarios for April 2
Scenario 1: Stabilisation and Rebound (Probability: 40%)
If the Finance Minister's office issues clarifying statements or the policy fear proves overblown, buyers may step in at 2,750-2,776. A bounce back toward 2,800 is possible on low-to-moderate volume. This scenario requires a positive catalyst or at minimum the absence of further negative news.
Scenario 2: Continued Selling with Consolidation (Probability: 45%)
The more likely near-term outcome — markets typically need 2-5 sessions to digest a shock like April 1's decline. Expect choppy trade in the 2,750-2,800 range with no decisive direction. Volume may be lighter as investors wait for policy clarity.
Scenario 3: Extension of Decline (Probability: 15%)
If additional negative policy or macro news surfaces — another Finance Ministry statement, NRB action, or political development — NEPSE could break below 2,750 and test the 2,725-2,730 zone. This scenario requires a new negative catalyst.
Sector Watch for April 2
Eyes will be on the financial sector (banks, development banks, finance companies) — they led Tuesday's decline and will likely set the tone for the overall market on Wednesday. If banking stocks stabilise or recover, the broader index should follow. Watch also for any circuit stocks from April 1 (RSML, BJHL, SKHL, SKHEL, RLEL, HFIN) — consecutive circuit stocks often see heightened volatility in subsequent sessions.
Technical Indicators Heading Into April 2
- RSI: April 1's decline likely pushed short-term RSI toward oversold territory (below 35) — a potential counter-trend bounce trigger
- MACD: Bearish crossover signal strengthens — not yet confirming a bottom
- Volume: Watch for declining volume on any further weakness — lower volume on continued decline is a positive divergence
Investor Checklist for April 2
- Check for any Finance Ministry clarifications overnight
- Monitor opening breadth — if more stocks open green than red, sentiment is recovering
- Watch the 2,750 level — if it holds as intraday support, consider limited buying in quality names
- Avoid panic selling if the market gaps down on open — gaps on high-fear days often fill within the session