Market Structure and Index Performance
The Nepal Stock Exchange delivered another encouraging session on March 26, 2026, as the NEPSE index gained 14.22 points to reach 2,950.16. With ten of twelve sectors closing positive, market breadth was firmly in favor of the bulls. Here we focus on smart money activity and market prediction.
The day's trading reflected a market in a clear uptrend. The NEPSE index has been steadily climbing, and today's close at 2,950.16 represents one of the strongest levels in recent weeks. The gap between the current level and the 3,000 mark has narrowed to just 50 points, creating a sense of anticipation among market participants.
The Sensitive Index, which tracks the 20 most liquid and actively traded stocks, confirmed the positive trend by closing at 502.44 with a 0.40% gain. Meanwhile, the Float Index ended at 202.77, up 0.51%, suggesting that mid-cap stocks with higher free-float ratios participated actively in today's rally.
Market breadth was distinctly positive with 10 of 12 sectors ending in the green. This kind of broad participation is healthy and suggests the rally is supported by genuine investor interest across multiple sectors rather than being driven by a handful of heavyweight stocks.
Sector Performance Analysis
The sector performance data from March 26 paints a picture of broad-based strength with clear sector leadership in hydropower and manufacturing.
| Sector | Index | Change % |
|---|---|---|
| Hydropower | 4,065.76 | +1.57% |
| Manufacturing | 10,527.90 | +1.51% |
| Hotels | 7,761.14 | +0.81% |
| Others | 2,416.42 | +0.66% |
| Investment | 113.21 | +0.51% |
| Non-Life Insurance | 11,858.96 | +0.43% |
| Banking | 1,550.82 | +0.37% |
| Microfinance | 5,211.85 | +0.20% |
| Finance | 2,652.93 | +0.17% |
| Life Insurance | 13,600.30 | -0.04% |
| Dev Bank | 6,369.68 | -0.06% |
| Trading | 4,155.10 | -2.84% |
Hydropower led all sectors with a commanding 1.57% gain to 4,065.76. This sector has benefited from seasonal tailwinds, as the approaching monsoon season promises increased river flows and power generation capacity. Manufacturing followed closely with a 1.51% gain to 10,527.90, reflecting improved domestic demand conditions.
Hotels gained 0.81% to 7,761.14, reflecting optimism around tourism recovery. The Others category rose 0.66%, Investment companies gained 0.51%, and Non-Life Insurance advanced 0.43%. Banking, the heavyweight sector, added 0.37% to reach 1,550.82.
Microfinance and Finance posted modest gains of 0.20% and 0.17% respectively. On the negative side, Trading was the clear laggard at -2.84%, while Life Insurance (-0.04%) and Dev Bank (-0.06%) were marginally negative.
Today's Top Gainers
The gainers list was highlighted by three stocks reaching the daily maximum gain of 10%, known as the upper circuit in NEPSE terminology.
| Symbol | Price (Rs) | Change % |
|---|---|---|
| HFIN | 262.9 | +10.0% |
| RSML | 2,013.1 | +10.0% |
| SKHL | 363.0 | +10.0% |
| BJHL | 434.8 | +9.99% |
| SOHL | 707.1 | +9.99% |
| KBLD89 | 1,346 | +8.11% |
| SCBD | 1,198 | +7.25% |
| NIMBD90 | 1,267 | +6.65% |
| NHPC | 320.0 | +6.24% |
| RIDI | 379.0 | +6.19% |
HFIN led the pack, closing at Rs.262.9 after hitting the 10% upper circuit. RSML at Rs.2,013.1 and SKHL at Rs.363.0 also hit the upper circuit, indicating that demand for these stocks far exceeded available supply. When a stock hits the upper circuit, it means there are still pending buy orders that could not be filled at the maximum allowed price.
BJHL and SOHL came extremely close to the upper circuit at 9.99% gains, closing at Rs.434.8 and Rs.707.1 respectively. The debenture market also saw strength with KBLD89 gaining 8.11% to Rs.1,346 and NIMBD90 advancing 6.65% to Rs.1,267.
Hydropower stocks NHPC (+6.24% to Rs.320.0) and RIDI (+6.19% to Rs.379.0) were notable not just for their gains but also for leading the volume charts, suggesting that large investors were actively building positions in these names.
Stocks That Declined Today
Despite the overall bullish session, some stocks experienced selling pressure, reminding investors that even in bull markets, stock selection matters.
| Symbol | Price (Rs) | Change % |
|---|---|---|
| PMHPL | 396 | -7.48% |
| SINDU | 833 | -3.58% |
| CORBL | 2,003 | -3.24% |
| BBC | 5,332 | -3.04% |
| NIBLGF | 9.7 | -2.60% |
| NIBSF2 | 9.6 | -2.55% |
| CSY | 9.6 | -2.35% |
| SABBL | 1,683 | -2.09% |
| SBLD89 | 1,240.5 | -1.99% |
| MATRIP | 523.5 | -1.98% |
PMHPL was the biggest decliner, falling 7.48% to Rs.396. A drop of this magnitude in an otherwise positive market often signals company-specific issues such as earnings disappointments, regulatory concerns, or insider selling. Investors holding this stock should investigate the reason for the decline before making portfolio decisions.
SINDU lost 3.58% to Rs.833, while CORBL fell 3.24% to Rs.2,003. BBC, one of the higher-priced stocks on the exchange, declined 3.04% to Rs.5,332. The decline in BBC is notable given its large market capitalization impact.
Several collective investment scheme units were among the losers. NIBLGF fell 2.60% to Rs.9.7, NIBSF2 dropped 2.55% to Rs.9.6, and CSY declined 2.35% to Rs.9.6. These declines in mutual fund units could indicate redemption pressure or reflect the underlying portfolio performance.
Volume Analysis and Trading Activity
Volume is often called the fuel of the market. On March 26, the volume distribution across stocks provides important clues about institutional activity and investor conviction.
| Symbol | Volume (Shares) |
|---|---|
| NHPC | 1,483,269 |
| KBL | 1,376,910 |
| RIDI | 1,218,929 |
| HIDCLP | 913,029 |
| API | 886,037 |
| NGPL | 853,071 |
| AKJCL | 808,838 |
| NBL | 795,076 |
| HDHPC | 763,427 |
| NRN | 571,390 |
NHPC dominated the volume charts with 1,483,269 shares changing hands. When a stock leads both the volume and gainers list simultaneously, it represents one of the strongest confirmation signals in market analysis. The 6.24% price gain on massive volume suggests aggressive accumulation by institutional investors.
KBL was the second most active stock with 1,376,910 shares traded. Despite a modest 0.74% decline, the high volume in KBL could indicate distribution or simply active trading around key technical levels.
RIDI rounded out the top three with 1,218,929 shares traded alongside a 6.19% gain, further confirming the hydropower sector's dominance on the day. HIDCLP (913,029), API (886,037), and NGPL (853,071) also saw significant activity, collectively representing millions of shares traded.
The aggregate volume picture shows broad market participation with ten stocks each trading over 500,000 shares. This kind of volume dispersion across multiple stocks is generally healthier than volume concentrated in just one or two names.
Banking Sector Performance
The banking sector holds outsized importance in NEPSE due to its significant index weight. On March 26, all 18 commercial banking stocks traded, with results ranging from +3.26% to -0.74%.
| Symbol | Price (Rs) | Change % |
|---|---|---|
| EBL | 712 | -0.28% |
| SCB | 677 | -0.28% |
| NABIL | 543 | +0.74% |
| SBI | 429.9 | +0.47% |
| SBL | 412.9 | +0.22% |
| NICA | 401 | +0.75% |
| SANIMA | 364.7 | -0.63% |
| ADBL | 333.1 | +0.94% |
| NBL | 288 | +3.26% |
| MBL | 266.9 | -0.04% |
| NMB | 265 | -0.26% |
| PCBL | 262.9 | -0.42% |
| GBIME | 254.8 | +0.87% |
| KBL | 240 | -0.74% |
| LSL | 235 | +0.47% |
| CZBIL | 229 | +1.01% |
| NIMB | 224.5 | +0.31% |
| PRVU | 223.7 | +0.27% |
NBL was the star performer among banks, surging 3.26% to Rs.288 with 795,076 shares traded. This kind of performance from a major commercial bank often attracts follow-on buying from other investors. CZBIL gained 1.01% to Rs.229, while ADBL rose 0.94% to Rs.333.1.
NABIL, one of Nepal's premier banks, gained 0.74% to Rs.543. NICA rose 0.75% to Rs.401, and GBIME advanced 0.87% to Rs.254.8. SBI gained 0.47% to Rs.429.9, while SBL edged up 0.22% to Rs.412.9.
On the weaker side, EBL and SCB both dipped 0.28%, closing at Rs.712 and Rs.677 respectively. These are the highest-priced banking stocks and their modest declines may reflect some resistance at current valuation levels. SANIMA fell 0.63% to Rs.364.7, and KBL dropped 0.74% to Rs.240.
The NRB's monetary policy indicators support the banking sector's outlook. The repo rate at 4.25% maintains accommodative conditions, the lending rate at 7.00% supports healthy net interest margins, and the CD ratio at 74.32% shows room for further credit growth. The NPL ratio at 5.42% requires monitoring, while the CAR at 12.61% confirms adequate capitalization.
Key Observations from Today's Session
Several important observations emerge from the March 26 trading session that are relevant for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
First, the NEPSE index at 2,950.16 is now within striking distance of 3,000. This psychological level will likely attract significant attention from both sides of the market. Bulls will want to push through, while bears may use it as an opportunity to take profits. The next few sessions will determine whether the market has enough momentum to clear this hurdle.
Second, the hydropower sector's dominance is not coincidental. As Nepal enters the pre-monsoon period, expectations of increased water flow and power generation drive institutional buying. The volume patterns in NHPC and RIDI confirm this thesis.
Third, three stocks hitting the upper circuit on a day when the broad market gained only 0.48% suggests pockets of extreme demand. These upper circuit hits often attract attention and can create momentum plays in subsequent sessions.
Fourth, the banking sector's modest 0.37% gain despite positive macro indicators suggests the sector may be consolidating before a larger move. With the lending rate at 7.00% and CD ratio at 74.32%, fundamentals support higher banking valuations.
Fifth, the Trading sector's sharp 2.84% decline is worth monitoring. Sector-level underperformance of this magnitude could signal trouble for constituent companies or simply represent rotation of capital to more attractive sectors.
Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Context
The NEPSE performance cannot be evaluated in isolation from the broader macroeconomic environment. Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) monetary policy indicators provide crucial context for understanding market dynamics.
The NRB repo rate stands at 4.25%, reflecting an accommodative policy stance aimed at supporting economic growth. This rate determines the cost at which commercial banks borrow from the central bank, and lower rates encourage banks to extend more credit to businesses and consumers.
The average deposit rate of 3.51% means that traditional savings instruments offer relatively modest returns. In an environment where inflation may exceed deposit returns, investors are incentivized to seek higher returns in the equity market, contributing to sustained buying pressure on NEPSE.
The lending rate at 7.00% strikes a balance between profitability for banks (through the spread between deposit and lending rates) and affordability for borrowers. Businesses can access credit at reasonable costs, supporting expansion and employment.
The Credit-to-Deposit ratio at 74.32% indicates that for every Rs.100 deposited in the banking system, approximately Rs.74.32 has been deployed as credit. This leaves meaningful room for additional lending before banks approach regulatory ceilings, which bodes well for both economic activity and banking sector earnings.
The Non-Performing Loan ratio at 5.42% bears watching. While within manageable limits, a rising NPL ratio could signal stress in certain lending segments and might eventually impact banking profitability and market sentiment. The Capital Adequacy Ratio at 12.61% provides a comfortable buffer above regulatory minimums, ensuring that banks can absorb potential loan losses without systemic risk.
Market Outlook and Trading Strategy
Based on the March 26 data, several scenarios merit consideration for upcoming trading sessions.
The primary scenario (60% probability) involves NEPSE testing the 3,000 level within the next few sessions. The broad market breadth, strong volume in leading stocks, and supportive macro environment all point toward continued upside. A breakout above 3,000 with strong volume could open the way for a move toward 3,050-3,100.
The secondary scenario (25% probability) involves a consolidation phase near current levels. After the recent advance, the market might need time to digest gains, trading sideways between 2,920 and 2,970 before making its next directional move. This would be healthy and would establish a stronger base for any eventual breakout.
The tertiary scenario (15% probability) involves a pullback from the 3,000 resistance. If selling pressure intensifies near the psychological level, the market could retreat to the 2,880-2,920 support zone. This would still maintain the overall uptrend structure and could provide buying opportunities.
Key levels to watch include 2,920 as immediate support, 2,900 as secondary support, and 3,000 as the primary resistance. Volume will be the critical confirming indicator for any significant move in either direction.
For traders, the hydropower sector continues to offer momentum opportunities, particularly in high-volume names like NHPC and RIDI. Banking stocks, given their modest gains on March 26, could provide catch-up trade opportunities. The Trading sector should be approached with caution until the reason for its sharp decline becomes clearer.
Long-term investors should use any pullbacks as opportunities to build positions in quality banking and hydropower stocks, keeping in mind the favorable interest rate environment and approaching seasonal catalysts.