Nepal's GDP Growth Trends: A Steady Economic Recovery Reflected in FY 2024/25 Projections

Nepal's economy has shown a consistent upward trajectory in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices over the past six fiscal years, signaling a recovery from the economic setbacks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and structural challenges. According to data published for the fiscal year 2024/25, Nepal's GDP is projected to reach Rs. 6107.2 billion, marking a notable rise from Rs. 5709.1 billion in the previous fiscal year 2023/24. This represents a projected year-on-year nominal growth of approximately 7%, reflecting improving business activity, domestic production, and consumption.

In the fiscal year 2019/20, the country's GDP stood at Rs. 3888.7 billion. The following year, despite the pandemic's disruptive effects, the GDP rose modestly to Rs. 4352.6 billion. The recovery gained momentum in 2021/22, with GDP increasing to Rs. 4976.6 billion — a growth of over 14% from the previous year. This improvement can be attributed to the gradual reopening of the economy, increase in remittances, revival of the tourism industry, and improved agricultural output.

The upward trend continued in 2022/23 when the GDP reached Rs. 5367.0 billion. However, the pace of growth slightly moderated as inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainties, and policy constraints weighed on the economy. Despite this, the overall expansion remained strong. In 2023/24, the GDP grew to Rs. 5709.1 billion, again reflecting positive domestic and external economic activities, including robust remittance inflows and increased infrastructure investments.

Looking ahead to fiscal year 2024/25, the GDP is forecasted to cross the Rs. 6100 billion mark, driven by expectations of improved macroeconomic stability, government expenditure, and private sector participation. If achieved, this would further cement Nepal’s path toward sustained economic recovery and resilience, particularly in the face of ongoing global economic headwinds. The continued growth in nominal GDP also underlines the need for strategic investment in productive sectors, export diversification, and fiscal reforms to ensure long-term sustainability.