NEPSE Forms ‘Lower Low’; Market Slides Below 2600, Eyes on 2580 Triple Bottom

The NEPSE index continued its downward trend on Sunday, the first trading day of the week, closing at 2595.97 points, a decline of 32.93 points. This marks the fourth consecutive day of losses and is the first time in nearly three months that the index has fallen below the crucial 2600 level.

While the impact of fiscal year-end (Asar masanta) pressure is visible, market sentiment was further shaken by speculative rumors circulating on social media about a possible third world war and an alleged U.S. airstrike on Iran. However, many investors argue these are baseless fears and suggest that large investors might be attempting to trigger panic selling to accumulate cheap shares.

The total trading volume also shrank, dropping from NPR 11.23 billion last Thursday to NPR 9.14 billion today. A total of 87,302 transactions were executed across 310 stocks, with 21.5 million units traded.

Top Gainers and Losers

• Joshi Hydropower hit the upper circuit, rising by NPR 31.62 to close at NPR 348.60.

• Saptakoshi Development Bank gained over 5%.

• Pure Energy saw the biggest fall, dropping 10%, the maximum limit for the day.

In terms of transaction value:

• Dordi Khola Hydropower led the board with NPR 757 million traded,

• Butwal Power Company followed with NPR 740 million, and

• Radhi Power saw over NPR 490 million in turnover.

All 13 Sub-indices in the Red

All sectors closed in the negative.

• Hotel & Tourism fell the most, by 3.13%,

• Hydropower dipped by over 2.5%,

• Financials, life insurance, manufacturing, and microfinance fell by more than 1% each.

Technical Analysis: Breakdown Confirms Lower Low

Today’s market broke a key structure in technical terms: after maintaining a consistent Higher Low (HL) pattern over the past 8–9 swings, NEPSE has now formed a Lower Low (LL). This structure break, along with a simultaneous breakdown of two previous Lower Highs (LH), signals growing weakness and strengthens the likelihood of a Death Cross forming on the chart.

Though trading volumes were strong, nearly 67% of the day’s activity was concentrated in the Hydropower sector, making other sectors appear passive and unable to stabilize the overall index. Analysts suggest that this imbalance has caused heightened volatility, with even small corrections in hydropower impacting the entire market.

Technically, NEPSE may now test the 2580 level as a potential Triple Bottom support zone. RSI (Relative Strength Index) has also dropped near 40, further confirming weakening momentum.

The 15-minute weighted average also shows the index declining by 1 point, highlighting diminishing investor confidence.

Broker Activity Overview

Among the top 10 brokers by turnover:

• Brokers 39, 49, 17, 56, and 38 had more sell than buy transactions.

• Brokers 58, 34, 42, 45, and 57 recorded more buy than sell trades.