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By Dipesh Ghimire

AI in Stock Trading: Nepal’s Cautious Steps Toward a Global Financial Revolution

AI in Stock Trading: Nepal’s Cautious Steps Toward a Global Financial Revolution

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming the global financial and capital markets. From executing trades in milliseconds to predicting market trends, AI has become an indispensable tool in high-speed, high-volume trading environments. In developed markets, AI-driven systems analyze vast amounts of data, including price movements, news sentiment, and economic indicators, to make accurate and timely decisions that far outperform human capabilities.

One of the most popular applications of AI in the financial world is algorithmic trading. These systems follow predefined rules—such as price, volume, and market trend—to automatically buy or sell stocks. This automation enables traders, especially day traders and institutional investors, to execute thousands of trades with precision and speed. Machine learning models, a subset of AI, can also identify historical patterns and forecast future price movements based on large datasets.

In Nepal, although the stock market is still in the early stages of digitization, there is a growing interest in AI-based solutions. The Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) has made progress in online trading systems, but full-scale AI implementation is yet to happen. As the market becomes more data-driven and competitive, the need for intelligent systems that can process information faster than humans is becoming more evident. For example, analyzing the financial reports, market signals, and economic policies of hundreds of companies in real time is a task well-suited for AI.

Another critical area where AI shows promise is in sentiment analysis. By examining company press releases, policy updates, social media posts, and public statements, AI can identify whether the tone is positive or negative and predict the likely effect on stock prices. In a fast-moving market, where even seconds matter, this can provide a significant advantage to investors.

AI also plays a crucial role in risk management. Traditionally, risk analysis relied on human judgment, past experience, and basic mathematical models. With AI, risk identification and mitigation have become more dynamic and data-driven. AI can assess portfolio concentration, suggest diversification, and flag unusual market activity that might indicate manipulation or volatility. It can operate 24/7, offering continuous market monitoring and immediate alerts.

However, AI is not without its limitations. The quality of AI predictions depends heavily on the data it is trained on. Inaccurate or biased data can lead to flawed decisions. Furthermore, AI may struggle to understand human emotions, political instability, or unexpected events like natural disasters, which can significantly impact stock prices. Overfitting, where models perform well on historical data but fail in real-world situations, is another concern.

Despite these challenges, AI is expected to play an increasingly important role in Nepal’s stock market. As fintech startups and private institutions explore AI-powered trading bots and analytics tools, the regulatory framework must also evolve to accommodate such innovations. NEPSE and SEBON will need to develop policies to support AI-based trading while ensuring market integrity and investor protection.

In conclusion, AI is not a replacement for human decision-making but a powerful assistant that enhances efficiency, accuracy, and speed in trading. In Nepal’s context, where transparency and timely access to information are often lacking, AI can help build trust and support smarter investment decisions. While it may take time for AI to become mainstream in Nepal’s stock market, its integration is inevitable—and potentially transformative.

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