Monthly Wholesale Inflation Trends: Strong Gains in Winter, Slowdown by Mid-2025

Nepal’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data for 2024/25 into early 2025/26 highlights a clear seasonal pattern—strong inflationary gains during winter months followed by a marked slowdown by mid-2025.

During the winter period, wholesale inflation accelerated sharply. The WPI recorded 5.16% in November 2024, 6.52% in December (the highest of the year), and 4.01% in January 2025. These spikes were driven largely by food shortages, festival demand (Tihar and Chhath), and higher construction input costs such as metals and non-metallic mineral products. These months placed significant pressure on both producers and consumers as wholesale prices rose across multiple sectors.

By contrast, as the fiscal year progressed, inflation began to moderate. In April 2025, the WPI rose 4.20%, slowing further to 3.95% in May. By June (1.56%) and July (1.05%), wholesale inflation nearly stalled, reflecting better harvest supplies, stabilized fuel prices, and easing industrial input costs. This cooling marked the lowest year-on-year growth rates in four years, suggesting greater price stability entering 2025/26.

The seasonal swings show that Nepal’s wholesale inflation is heavily food- and construction-driven. Winter months consistently push prices upward due to limited supply and heightened demand, while mid-year harvests and stable imports ease pressures. For households, this means sharper expenses around festivals and winter, while industries face higher input costs that can delay or raise the price of projects.