Continuous Decline in NEPSE, Falling Turnover, RSI Around 42

Nepal’s stock market has been on a continuous downward trend in recent days. Notably, for the past three consecutive trading sessions, both the NEPSE index and market turnover have been declining, raising caution among investors. On Wednesday, the NEPSE index fell by 10.50 points to close at 2,785.74.

Turnover figures also reflect sluggish market activity. On Tuesday, shares worth NPR 6.91 billion were traded, while Wednesday’s turnover dropped to NPR 6.16 billion, indicating reduced investor participation. Among the 13 sub-indices, only 4 posted gains while the remaining 9 declined. Maya Khola Hydropower led the gainers with a 5.74% price increase, followed by Sanima Large Cap Fund with around a 4.5% rise. Most other stocks saw gains of less than 4%. On the losing side, the 10.25% KBL Debenture fell by 9.48%, marking the largest drop of the day.

In terms of transaction value, Balefi Hydropower topped the list with NPR 341.1 million in trades, followed by United Modi Hydropower with around NPR 270 million and Shivam Cements surpassing NPR 240 million. This trend suggests a cautious trading environment, with high-value trades concentrated mainly in hydropower and cement sectors.

Technical Analysis
According to technical analyst Ajit Khanal, the NEPSE is currently in a bearish phase. A breakdown of key support levels has triggered a deeper market correction. Looking at the current structure, the next major support lies near the 61% Fibonacci retracement level, which coincides closely with the 50-day moving average (50MA). Historically, NEPSE has often rebounded from this 50MA level, giving investors hope for a possible positive signal this time as well. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 42, suggesting the market is nearing a mildly oversold condition.

Trading volume has been on a steady decline for the past few days, with today’s turnover marking the lowest since June 3. Large supply orders have been observed during the market’s closing hours, a trend that has persisted for several days. Sector-wise, hydropower has once again captured nearly 40% of market share.

Broker Analysis
Data from the top 10 brokers shows that 6 of them bought more than they sold, indicating the possible entry of institutional or large investors into the market.