Market Sentiment Shaken by CGT Rumors Despite NEPSE’s Green Signal

The Nepal stock market showed a slight upward movement on Tuesday, but underlying fear persists due to ongoing rumors about a potential hike in Capital Gains Tax (CGT). The NEPSE index rose marginally by 0.85 points to close at 2675.62, yet the total turnover dropped to NPR 6.52 billion—lower than previous sessions. The technical outlook and investor sentiment both remain uncertain.

The recent third-quarter monetary policy review by Nepal Rastra Bank brought optimism to the market, especially with the reduction of risk weight on share mortgage loans to 100%. However, the market failed to gain momentum. Uncertainty surrounding the upcoming budget and the potential introduction of CGT as a final tax has left investors in a wait-and-watch mode. Analysts argue that if CGT is indeed treated as final tax, the long-term impact on the market could be minimal.

From a technical analysis standpoint, the NEPSE index formed a Doji candle on Tuesday at the 200-day moving average support level, indicating indecision. For the past several sessions, the index has repeatedly tested the key 2660–2670 support range. While it didn’t break this level on Tuesday, analysts caution that if 2660 is breached, downward pressure could intensify. Short-term traders are advised to closely monitor this zone.

In terms of broker activity, data shows 6 out of the top 10 brokers made more buys than sells, while 4 had higher sell volumes. Broker 58 topped the list with NPR 677.5 million in total trades—NPR 382.9 million in buying and NPR 294.6 million in selling—resulting in a buy/sell ratio of 1.3. Brokers 42 and 45 also posted nearly balanced trading activity.