Pressure in Buying: NEPSE Declines Again but Select Stocks Show Bullish Trend, Retail Investors Still Hesitant

On Wednesday, the NEPSE index fell by 1.07 points, closing at 2,653.68. After a mild drop the previous day, this continued decline has left retail investors hesitant to re-enter the market. According to analysts, retail participants are still cautious, while some stocks are showing a bullish trend — raising concerns about operator involvement in those counters.

Despite the index decline, trading volume saw a notable rise. A total of 314 companies saw transactions involving 23.4 million shares traded in over 78,000 transactions, resulting in a turnover of NPR 9.08 billion — significantly higher than the previous day’s NPR 7.5 billion.

Pure Energy remained in the spotlight, hitting the positive circuit limit for the 12th consecutive day, gaining NPR 109.70 and closing at NPR 1,207.20. Likewise, Joshi Hydropower surged nearly 10%, while Union Hydropower rose over 9%.
On the losing side, Corporate Development Bank fell by 10%, becoming the day's top loser.

In terms of trading volume, Sanima Mai Hydropower led with NPR 717.8 million, followed by Singati Hydro (NPR 620 million) and Butwal Power (NPR 450 million).

Out of 13 sub-indices, 5 closed in green — including Hydropower, Life Insurance, Manufacturing & Processing, Mutual Funds, and Others — while 8 saw declines. Notably, Development Banks and Hotels & Tourism fell over 1%.

The market remains mixed and directionless, with high turnover in select stocks creating an uneven momentum. Investors seem to be in a “wait and watch” mode.

Technical Analysis: Market in 'Higher Low' Zone – Watch 2630 and 2700 Levels

Analysts note that NEPSE is currently in a "higher low" setup — a sensitive technical zone that could determine the next market trend. If the index breaks above 2700, a positive sentiment and upward momentum could return. However, if it drops below 2630, a negative momentum may re-emerge, signaling market weakness.

From a sectoral view, Banking, Hydropower, and Microfinance indicators remain technically positive, but a clear overall market trend has yet to be established. Analysts advise close monitoring of technical indicators and cautious participation.

Broker Analysis: Buy Pressure from Major Brokers

Out of the top 10 brokers, 7 recorded more buying than selling. Only 3 had higher sell volumes.

• Broker 45 led the market with NPR 1.16 billion in trades — NPR 553.6 million in buys vs. NPR 606.5 million in sells.

• Broker 58 executed NPR 925.3 million in trades with NPR 475.9 million in buys and NPR 449.4 million in sells.

• Broker 34 traded NPR 686.2 million — NPR 349.3 million in buys and NPR 336.9 million in sells.
  Brokers 42, 17, and 49 also showed higher buying volumes.

Stock-wise Broker Activity

• In Sanima Mai Hydropower, Broker 45 recorded 432K shares bought and 472K sold.

• Joshi Hydropower saw 195K shares bought via Broker 72.

• RHPCL saw 192K shares bought via Broker 58.

Despite the index slipping, increased trading volumes and strong moves in select stocks suggest mixed sentiment. Technicals point to a pivotal range, with 2630 and 2700 acting as key levels. Investors are advised to stay alert, manage risks wisely, and follow technical cues closely.