Market in Overbought Zone: NEPSE Maintains Green Streak for 7th Day, Market Cap Hits NPR 4.97 Trillion, RSI Crosses 84

The Nepalese stock market continued its bullish rally for the seventh straight trading day, with the NEPSE index surging by 253 points during this period. On Wednesday, the index gained 5.17 points to close at 2,978.88 – the highest level in recent months. Daily turnover has remained consistently around NPR 20 billion for the past three sessions, while total market capitalization reached an all-time high of NPR 4.97 trillion.

This consistent rise has significantly boosted investor confidence. However, Wednesday’s session also showed early signs of caution, with a doji candlestick appearing after NEPSE broke through the 2,929 resistance. Technical analyst Ajit Khanal notes that the doji signals weakening buyer momentum and potential profit booking.

RSI Warning – Overbought Zone Crossed
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has crossed the 84 level, officially entering the "overbought zone." Historically, this indicates a high likelihood of a short-term correction. The next major resistance level stands near 3,045, followed by a stronger ceiling around 3,088 – from where the market previously reversed. While sentiment remains bullish, approaching this resistance zone calls for cautious trading.

Sector and Stock Movement
Out of 13 sub-indices, 7 closed higher while 6 declined. The Finance sub-index led the gainers with a 3.23% rise, whereas Hotels & Tourism fell by 1.10%. Notably, shares of Trade Tower and Sanvi Energy hit the upper circuit. Green Ventures surged by around 9.5%, while Bhugol Energy dropped by 5.32%.

Broker Activity Analysis
Among the top 10 brokers by turnover, five were net buyers and the remaining five were net sellers. Broker 58 led the board with a turnover of NPR 2.23 billion and a Buy/Sell ratio of 1.24, indicating stronger buying activity. Conversely, brokers like 49, 57, and 38 showed higher selling pressure.

The market remains in a bullish trend, but technical signals like RSI entering overbought territory and the appearance of a doji candle suggest caution. With the next resistance at 3,045, a correction or profit-taking could be expected. The hydro sector continues to dominate with nearly 38% share of daily trades, while participation from major brokers remains strong.

While the momentum is still upward, the overbought RSI and key resistance levels ahead suggest it’s time for strategic thinking. Investors should manage risk carefully, monitor price action closely, and consider locking profits if signs of reversal emerge in the coming sessions.