Global Trade Set to Exceed USD 35 Trillion in 2025, UN Report Signals Strong Momentum

Global trade is poised to cross the USD 35 trillion mark for the first time in 2025, according to a new assessment released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The projection comes at a time when the global economy is wrestling with geopolitical friction, rising operational costs, and uneven demand across major markets.

UNCTAD’s analysis suggests that despite these headwinds, global commerce has continued to expand at a steady pace. The report estimates an annual trade growth rate of around seven percent for 2025—not driven by inflation but by an actual rise in traded volumes. Analysts say this indicates that global consumption has remained resilient even as major economies confront slower growth cycles.

Region-wise, East Asia stands out as the strongest performer. The region’s exports are estimated to have grown by nearly nine percent, with intra-regional trade climbing even higher at ten percent. This momentum, the report notes, reinforces East Asia’s long-established position as the world’s key manufacturing and supply-chain hub. African and South-South trade flows have also shown notable expansion, reflecting the increasing weight of emerging economies in global production and demand.

The study highlights a growing shift toward “friend-shoring”—a trend where countries prioritize trade with politically aligned or geographically closer partners. UNCTAD interprets this as a structural transformation in world trade, one that could gradually reshape global supply chains and reduce reliance on traditional long-distance trade routes.

However, the momentum may not last long. UNCTAD warns that global trade growth could cool down in 2026 amid slowing economic activity, rising debt burdens, elevated trade costs, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Economists say that while the 2025 outlook appears encouraging, the underlying vulnerabilities suggest the recovery remains fragile.