India Holds 81.3% Share of Nepal’s Total Exports in 2025/26

In FY 2025/26, Nepal’s export sector became even more concentrated, with India absorbing 81.3 percent of total exports. Out of Nepal’s total exports worth Rs. 23.93 billion, shipments to India alone accounted for Rs. 19.45 billion, up from Rs. 7.57 billion in the previous year. This represents an extraordinary 156.7 percent growth, fueled largely by electricity exports, agricultural goods, and certain manufactured products.

By contrast, Nepal’s exports to China plummeted by 65.2 percent to just Rs. 54.8 million, while exports to other countries slipped by 1.4 percent to Rs. 4.42 billion. This shows that Nepal’s export diversification has weakened further, leaving the economy overwhelmingly dependent on India for foreign earnings.

Although India’s growing import of Nepali electricity and goods has narrowed the bilateral deficit by 8.6 percent, such dependence also poses risks. Any changes in India’s trade policies, energy demand, or regulatory restrictions could sharply affect Nepal’s export earnings. The lack of market penetration in China and stagnant performance in other countries underline Nepal’s need for broader export strategies.