NEPSE Outlook: Is 3000 Still the Top? A Technical Deep Dive from Market Leaders

Subas Chandra Dhungana

Is 3000 the Top of This Swing?

Short Answer: No.
Interpretation: The 3000 level, although a historically strong psychological barrier, has already been tested three times. With each test, the resistance weakens. According to Market Leaders, this third test has made the 3000 mark fragile, and the next attempt could finally break it. Technically, a resistance tested multiple times with strong volume often leads to a breakout.

What’s the Basis for This Optimism?

The current pattern mimics previous bullish runs. The market had fallen from 3227 to around 2260 before rebounding to 2980 in an earlier swing. This current swing has again reached near 3000, suggesting a similar bullish structure. The logic is rooted in probability—not certainty—but based on past movements, the resistance appears ready to break.

Does Current Trading Volume Support This View?

Yes. Market volume hasn't spiked irrationally, but is gradually increasing—a sign of healthy accumulation rather than euphoric buying. During the last swing top near 3000, daily turnover touched NPR 30 billion. This time, we’ve yet to see that volume, meaning the top hasn't formed yet. A breakout will likely be confirmed if the turnover exceeds NPR 30 billion and the index closes above 3000.

Has the “Shakeout Phase” Ended?

Technically, yes. The formation of a "Higher Low" at 2660 and a "Higher High" above 2800 confirms the end of the shakeout. Waiting for more confirmation like a move beyond 3050 or 3200 may be too late—by then, the majority of the uptrend could already be over.

Could the Market Go Sideways Again?

Not likely in the current setup. Unless a new high is followed by a significant 15–20% correction, the sideways risk is minimal. For now, momentum seems intact.

What Should Investors Do Now?

Investors are advised to stay put rather than chasing new entries. Traders, however, should avoid diversifying into unknown stocks and instead focus on their current holdings. No major moves are recommended until the market shows turnover above NPR 30 billion and breaks the 3000 mark.

Is 3200 the Next Big Resistance?

No. Once 3000 is breached, market sentiment is expected to shift significantly. The 3200 level, which was a past high, is less likely to act as a major psychological hurdle because confidence would already be restored by then.

How High Can the Market Go After Breaking 3200?

There’s no fixed ceiling. Instead of predicting highs, Market Leaders suggest using a Trailing Stop-Loss (SL) approach—secure your profits while riding the trend. Also, expect sectoral rotation as the bull run matures—meaning leadership may shift from one sector to another, and smart traders should be alert to these changes.

Disclaimer: This article is based on interpretations by Market Leaders and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult professionals before making decisions.