NEPSE Nears Support Zone After 143-Point Drop in 3 Days, Investors Hope for Rebound

NEPSE Plunges Sharply
The NEPSE index witnessed a steep fall of 143 points over the last three trading days, signaling short-term bearish sentiment. On Tuesday (Shrawan 13), the index touched a recent high of 3,002 points. However, it declined by 48 points on Wednesday, 31.5 points on Thursday, and 63.73 points on Sunday — a total correction of nearly 5%.

Psychological Resistance at 3000
Market analysts indicate that the 3000 level has long served as a psychological resistance. Many short-term investors booked profits near this level, which triggered further selling pressure. As a result, the market failed to sustain above 3000.

Falling Turnover Reflects Caution
On Sunday, total market turnover dropped to NPR 13.07 billion, a sharp fall from Thursday's NPR 15.98 billion. The declining turnover highlights investor caution as many adopt a wait-and-see approach until a clear trend emerges.

Broad-Based Decline Across Sub-Indices
All 13 sectoral sub-indices closed in the red. The "Others" index fell the most at 3.48%, followed by Microfinance (over 3%), and over 2% declines in Banking, Investment, Life Insurance, and Manufacturing sectors, signaling a market-wide negative sentiment.

Financial Reports Bring Hope
With Q4 earnings season underway, most listed companies have reported positive results, showing improvement in net profit, EPS, and income. This has raised expectations of upcoming dividend announcements, which could support market recovery.

Policy Support from Monetary Policy
The newly announced monetary policy includes several market-friendly provisions such as interest rate stability, liquidity management, and financial system strengthening. These are expected to gradually improve investor sentiment in the coming weeks.

Historical Trend Suggests Optimism
Historically, Shrawan and Bhadra months are bullish for NEPSE. In Bhadra 2078, the index crossed 3200, while in Shrawan last year, it hovered near 3000. This seasonal pattern has kept investors hopeful for an upward rebound.

Selective Stocks Still Performing
Despite the correction, some stocks hit positive circuit levels—namely Trade Tower and Shiv Shree Hydropower. Three Star Hydropower rose by 4.5%, while Sanvi Energy hit a lower circuit, showing mixed investor interest.

Top Stocks by Turnover

• Nepal Reinsurance: NPR 75.39 crore

• Himalayan Reinsurance: NPR 71 crore

• Himalayan Distillery: NPR 59 crore

Technical Analysis: NEPSE Close to Demand Zone
Technical analysts suggest that if NEPSE fails to break resistance between 3000–3050, it could retest the support zone between 2750–2800. The index currently stands at 2858, indicating proximity to a strong demand zone and a possible rebound.

Broker Activity Shows Mixed Sentiment
Among the top 10 brokers, 6 were net sellers, while 4 showed relatively higher buy activity. This shows divided sentiment—some positioning for a rebound, others staying cautious.