Today’s NEPSE Forecast – Buying Momentum or Profit Booking After NRB’s Decision?

After Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) unveiled its latest policy reforms, the overall mood in the stock market has shifted toward cautious optimism. Investors are still digesting the implications of NRB’s decisions — particularly the reduction of the mandatory investment holding period to six months and the removal of the NPR 25 crore limit on share-backed loans. These measures have been interpreted as pro-market signals that could inject liquidity, attract institutional investors, and give retail traders greater confidence in near-term opportunities.

At the opening bell today, buying pressure was evident across major sectors, especially in banking, hydropower, investment holdings, and insurance. Large investors appeared to be rebalancing portfolios to take advantage of increased flexibility, while traders rushed to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks with short-term upside potential. Turnover volume has shown signs of recovery compared to the previous few sessions, suggesting that the market is slowly regaining momentum.

However, despite the renewed enthusiasm, profit booking remains a key risk. Stocks that rallied in anticipation of NRB’s policy announcement could face mild selling pressure as short-term traders secure gains. Analysts warn that while the new policy provides structural benefits, it also invites speculative trading and leverage-driven volatility. The margin loan expansion may fuel short-term demand, but sustained growth will depend on disciplined institutional buying and strong liquidity inflows.

For the day ahead, the market is likely to remain volatile but with a green bias. Early buying momentum could push NEPSE upward in the morning session, possibly testing key resistance levels near the 2,580–2,600 zone. If institutional investors continue to add exposure and maintain volume, the index may close higher. However, if mid-day selling and profit booking dominate, a partial correction or flat closing cannot be ruled out.

Overall, today’s NEPSE sentiment reflects a transition from uncertainty to cautious optimism. NRB’s decisions have rekindled market interest, but sustainable growth will rely on the balance between speculative energy and fundamental strength.